The multi-child scenario.

Dr. Antoniou points to one part of the pedigree from the second and third generations. This part shows a family with four children, all born to two CF carrier parents (Aa × Aa). The genotypes each child ended up with are:

• Child 7: Affected Female (aa)

• Child 8: Carrier Male (Aa)

• Child 9: Carrier Female (Aa)

• Child 10: Unaffected, Non-Carrier Female (AA)

Ana: ‘Wow, each possible genotype is represented in the family—aa, Aa, and AA. Talk about a perfect example of the 1:2:1 ratio.’

Chris: ‘So, in total, one child is affected, two are carriers, and one is genetically clear. That matches the results we’d expect from Punnett square calculations, right?’

Dr. Antoniou: “Precisely. Though we call it a ‘1:2:1 ratio,’ families don’t always exhibit these outcomes so neatly. Probability tells us the chance of each genotype, but with enough births, patterns like these do emerge.’

Michael: ‘It’s fascinating to see a real-life distribution. So each birth was an independent 25% shot at having the condition, a 50% shot at being a carrier, and 25% at being AA?’

Dr. Antoniou: ‘Yes, each pregnancy is an independent event. Let’s review a question you might encounter here:

‘What’s the probability that out of these four children, exactly one turned out affected?’ Let’s see how we’d solve that.’

  • Multiply ¼ by itself for the first child and list the rest as unaffected
  • Use the Binomial Rule
  • Multiply ¼ by 4

Map: CS13 - BIOSTATISTICS: INTRODUCTION TO PROBABILITIES (1061)
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